Ted Romanowitz and Morris Garrard, Futuresource Consulting

The 16:9 PODCAST IS SPONSORED BY SCREENFEED – DIGITAL SIGNAGE CONTENT

The UK-based research and advisory firm Futuresource Consulting sends a big team every year to the ISE trade show in Barcelona, and then a few weeks later releases a big report that serves as a technical recap for the pro AV community - both for people who could not attend, and for people like me who did, but didn't have anywhere near enough time to see everything.

The 2025 report is out now and the good news is that it is a free download - a departure for a company that produces detailed reports that are typically paywalled and tend to cost at least four figures.

In this podcast, I chat with Ted Romanowitz, a principal consultant focused mainly on LED, and Morris (or Mozz) Garrard, who heads the pro displays file and looks more at LCD and OLED. We get into a bunch of things in a too-short 30 minute interview. You'll hear about mass-transferred Chip On Board tech. Where Chip On Glass, also known as MicroLED, is at. And we also get into LCD, OLED, e-paper and projection.

Have a listen.

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TRANSCRIPT

Ted and Morris, thank you for joining me. You guys are from Futuresource Consulting. 

Every big trade show, like an ISE or an Infocomm and some other ones as well, but those are the ones I'm most familiar with, Futuresource sends a whole bunch of people to these shows. I'm curious how many people at Futuresource are on the pro display file, and why do you go to trade shows like ISE? 

Morris Garrard: Dave, I'm glad to jump in. Thank you again for your time today, and looking forward to tossing with you. Overall, we took nearly 20 analysts and business development people to ISE which shows Futuresource’s commitment to the trade show and our clients, specifically the Pro AV, we took four analysts, and I'm on the consulting and advisory side, so we had a really good representation across all the technologies: projection, flat panel, interactive, and LED. 

I assume the reason that you go is it's a very efficient way to see a whole bunch of new stuff and touch base with a whole bunch of companies under one roof in a matter of days.

Morris Garrard: Oh, absolutely. For me, it's just always, you walk in and you hit that Hall 3 where a lot of the display companies are, and it's just. Like that first impression you go, oh my gosh, here we are. How am I gonna do all this? 

It's always nice. I always start at the Lang booth because they always do a nice job of having that big wow something right there at the major intersection.

Yeah, they've done well with that. One thing about Futuresource is that the great majority of the material you put out is understandably paywalled. That's your business, you're producing subject matter expertise reports and selling them. So I'm always a bit curious about a complete 180 with these post-show reports. They're very detailed, there are many pages, and it's almost boy, that's more than you needed to do.

Morris Garrard: Yes, I think it's, this year was something between 40 and 50 pages to cover the many, different areas of our practices, but, yeah, we think it adds value to our clients to see the latest and greatest, what's happening and not just a reporting of this product announcement or that product announcement, but it provides the context of what's really happening the undercurrents and the, big stories, the technology transitions, if you will, that are happening that are driving shifts in the industry. That kind of helps us open doors with clients to have deeper Engagements with them based on our unique insights. 

Ted Romanowitz: I think just to add to that as well is we don't produce these show reports solely for the benefit of our clients. We also work with an extensive research network that benefits from these show reports, as well as other industry bodies that we work with, like trade associations, for example, and our channel partners as well. 

It's a way, obviously, that you're getting driving awareness of the sort of work that you guys do and what is possible behind the paywall. 

Ted Romanowitz: Exactly that. Yeah. It's a brilliant opportunity to raise our profile and also to raise the profile of the analysts working within these product sectors as well.

So we're already four minutes in, and I've got about half an hour to chat with you guys. So we should dive straight into some of what you saw and came away with, and I would say that the biggest thing is probably LED in the context of pro display, anyway. So let's skip past audio and some of those other areas.

You talked a lot in the report about mass transfer chips on board. Can you, first of all, describe what that is? Because we're in an industry that's overwhelmed by acronyms and why they're important, and what's the distinction? Why are you saying mass transferred when you're processing COB with mass transferred?

Ted Romanowitz: Yes, and not only are there a lot of acronyms, Dave, but the problem is that terms are being misused, and I've heard you talk about that a little bit. It's a really strategic inflection point that's happening right now, literally right in front of our very eyes at ISE, where you're shifting from packaged LED technologies that have driven the industry for 20 years where the LED: red, blue, green are packaged and then picked and placed onto a PCB. That's shifting to package list technologies where the individual chiplets are red, blue, and green and are being mass transferred. So instead of one pixel at a time, they're doing thousands, and when you think about it in context, a 4k display is over 8.2 million pixels. So if you can transfer thousands at a once instead of one by one, you save a lot of time, and so this package list technology is like a chip on board where the backplane is a PCB and it's a passive driver and then chip on glass or what we call micro LED. Truly micro LED, that is, sub-100 micrometers mass transferred onto a TFT black backplane with an active driver.

So at ISE, you saw this crazy tidal wave, I'm going to go with that term, this crazy tidal wave of companies that are announcing COB, and the biggest thing is that they're coming to the fruition of manufacturing processes so that they can mass transfer instead of pick and place. So the cost is going to be a lot less to make them, first of all, because you don't have to package first, then pick and place, and then secondly, because you can mass transfer. 

So we expect, and this is going to, within maybe the next 12 months following, this could drive up to a 50 percent decrease in the ASPs, average sales price of 1.5 millimeters and below. It's just truly amazing. We've been hearing about this for several years, Futuresource has been writing about it, and now it's happening right before our eyes. 

With COB, there are other inherent advantages as well, right? The first one would be that as they're manufactured, the finished modules have some sort of protective coating on them. That's just fundamental to how they do them, right? Versus SMD, it's the older school packaged LED displays where they're unprotected unless they've got this glue on board coating, and they're more prone to damage. 

Ted Romanowitz: Yes, exactly, and those processes have been perfected over the last two to three years. So not only can you do a nice job of encapsulating it, but they can repair the LEDs as well, even after encapsulation. 

So that's a major thing that's happening, and one of the things that I saw at the show was i5LED actually had a double difficult display that they did in the sense that it's a corner, an inside corner, which is difficult to do with LEDs to get, so there's not any seams or anything. But then the second thing they did is they put a touch overlay on an encapsulated COB display so you could touch. It had multi-touch on it. So again, really interesting to see the future of what's happening. 

Yeah, because touch and LED were different worlds for the longest time, and it's only been recently where you start to see IR frames around displays that would make them interactive, and you wouldn't want to touch a conventional SMB display because it was going to damage it. 

Ted Romanowitz: Exactly, especially when you get to 1.2 millimeters and below. The joke has always been that you needed to put a little tray underneath the LED wall that you were touching to capture all of the LED pixels that were falling off. But now, that's improved with all these new manufacturing techniques. 

Are there benefits as well to COB in terms of energy consumption or brightness, things like that?

Ted Romanowitz: Yeah, and the answer is yes. It's really incredible to see. Early in the LED market, if you've got 600 nits that was a lot, now you're seeing indoor displays at a 1000 or 1500 nits, which allows you to put them in a high ambient light situation, room that has Florida ceiling windows, like an office or an atrium, or even in a store window or of course outdoors in a kind of a kiosk or a standalone LED display. So this package is like technology; the chips are getting so small that you're filling in the space between the chips with an ultra black covering. That increases the contrast ratio and makes HDR content sing. 

Yeah, it's like the old days of plasma displays and how their big benefit was deep blacks. 

Ted Romanowitz: Exactly. 

Yeah, so one of the things I came away with from ISE, and I had the impression in earlier shows as well, but really amplified this year with all the talk around micro LED and how it's coming, and that's like the ultimate super premium display. 

I would look at the current product line of manufacturers who are doing COB and think, okay, that's more than good enough. I don't know that the world needs to get to micro LED video walls for us to finally have good-looking LED video walls. We're already there. 

Ted Romanowitz: That's true, but really, it comes down to a cost basis, and this is where we've modeled. Working with some of the biggest OEMs and ODMs in the world, we've modeled the volume that they're going to be able to produce over the next several years, and the quality that they'll be able to deliver in mass quantities, and basically, the outcome is that by the early 2030s, let's say a 77-inch or 80-inch micro LED display chip on glass will be $4,000 or less and so that brings it into mass adoption and really makes it useful for, not only does it enable the close up viewing that chip on glass does, or chip on board, but it enables a price point where you're going to see it broadly deployed in meeting rooms and corporate, you'll see it in classrooms and education, all across stadiums, venues, hospitality, every different market vertical is going to be impacted by a price point of LED that's comparable to LCD today within the next several years. 

Why wouldn't that happen just with COB? 

Ted Romanowitz: It's the cost basis of being able to do things on a PCB is more expensive versus a TFT backplane. Over the long run, it has to shift towards a TFT backplane, a glass backplane. 

The barrier to that happening right now is unlike COB, where mass transfer appears to have been worked out. It's still a work in progress on the chip on the glass or micro LED side, right?

Ted Romanowitz: It is. There are a few other roadblocks that have to be overcome for chip on glass to be in volume with high quality, high yields, and when that happens, then you'll start seeing the volume ramp and the price really starts to drop. 

So there will be a day, early in the next decade, when chip-on-glass micro LED displays have the same dimensions, same resolution, everything else would be at price parity with LCD.

Ted Romanowitz: Yes, with LCD today. What Moss has been looking at with the rest of the team is what's gonna happen with flat panel LCD, interactive LCD, and projection. What are the unique instances where those need to be implemented, best-fit applications and what they're doing to drive price down and add value, differentiate to keep extending those product life cycles.

Moss, is there much runway still for LCD? I'm also very curious about OLED, which keeps getting better technically but is still pretty narrowly defined, particularly on the pro-AV side. 

Morris Garrard: Yeah. I think there are a few nuances here that we need to consider when we're talking about the LCD product lifecycle. 

How we looked at this in our recent strategic market outlook was to split the market into three parts. So first, looking at the video will market, then looking at the digital signage market, and then looking at what we define as the presentation market, so in front of classroom, front of boardroom devices.

Video wall, I think it's no real surprise that it is certainly being cannibalized by LED the fastest. We're already seeing that kind of impact happening at, I think, back in 2020; even LED overtook LCD as the main contributor to market value in the video wall market. If we then look at digital signage, which obviously would include screens that are sub 100 inch, which typically would have the price per resolution advantage over LED. We're already seeing LED making inroads to that market as well, so it's actually in 2025 that we're expecting LED to overtake LCD as the main contributor to the market value.

Then, looking at the presentation market, which is very much dominated by the likes of interactive flat panel display, but then also obviously nontouching in many boardrooms as well. Obviously, there is still that cost consciousness when it comes to presentation displays. However, in the more narrow pixel pitch segments, as Ted mentioned, that price attrition that we're expecting over the next few years, it's going to rapidly increase the adoption of LEDs within the boardroom, especially the boardroom, and perhaps less so in K12, which obviously makes up the bulk of the education segment. But we're expecting by 2028 that LED will overtake LCDs and market value share by that point. That's not to say necessarily that the LCD market is going away in volume terms. I think the key point is in terms of value. Prices are continuing to erode to really race to the bottom on LCD. And then obviously, yeah, with volume starting to flatten out, LED is making inroads quite rapidly. 

What about OLED?

Morris Garrard: OLED's an interesting one. I think the key stumbling block for OLED in the professional displays market has been the price, as opposed to LCD. We're looking at around about 1.5 to 2X differential, which within the cost conscious mindset, especially in signage, but also in presentation displays as well. It has presented an obstacle to adoption. So OLED, we're looking at around 1% of volumes across the global market in terms of volume, and really that's stayed quite stable over the last few years, hasn't ramped as perhaps was expected a few years ago, 

One thing that was intriguing to me was reading some of the stuff coming out of CES and then going to ISE, and I went to the TCL booth, I believe and they had a 120 or 125-inch something, giant TV, and I was thinking, okay, that I know what they're doing with these things. There's local dimming and everything else, and the visuals coming out of these displays are stunning. They look borderline OLED quality and at that form factor, as costs come down on manufacturing those things, they are starting to approach, very close in size to all in LED displays that a lot of manufacturers have in their product lines to simplify things for meeting spaces, conference rooms and so on.

Do you see these LCDs getting some traction, supplanting the all-in-one LEDs? 

Morris Garrard: Do you know what, Dave? That's a really interesting point because we had a number of conversations at ISE about the opportunity for larger than 100-inch LCDs. I think my answer to those individuals was that there may be an opportunity for now. I think the price attrition that we're seeing on all-in-one LEDs will bring those displays into, maybe not into price parity, then at least, within the same kind of ballpark. 

But I think the other key issue with, let's take 120 inch LCD, for example, is the logistics of it. If you're in a boardroom and you're on the fifth floor, and you've got to fit a 120-inch LCD into a lift, then where we're based in Europe, that's absolutely not going to happen. Maybe in North America where you guys have your freight elevators and whatnot, but I think in terms of being able to install the display itself.

You're not carrying that on the stairs. 

Morris Garrard: Exactly, and let's say someone does crack it on the floor as they're installing it, then you've got to replace the whole thing. Whereas with an LED wall, it's just one module that needs to be replaced. I think there are those challenges as well that will limit the opportunity in that segment. 

Are you seeing much innovation when it comes to LCD and OLEDs? 

Morris Garrard: I would say in terms of the commercial LCD market, over the last few years, the key points of innovation have been, as you say, OLED initially, 8K resolution, 21:9, and then high brightness and kind of outdoor displays lumped into one. Those have really been the key points of development. 

In terms of market adoption, though, they haven't really taken off. I would say high brightness and outdoors are probably the best examples, accounting for around 2 to 4% of market volumes, whereas the rest is still lingering around 1 to 2%.

There was a lot of buzz and quite a bit of activity at ISE around electronic ink products, e-paper products, particularly on the color side. They've gotten bigger. There were 75-inch versions there. I had seen them earlier when I was over in Taiwan, and I thought, okay, this is interesting, but it's really early days, and this is a proof of concept more than anything else because yeah, they didn't look bad, but they didn't look good. 

Morris Garrard: Yeah, I think e-paper is an interesting one and I think it presents a fantastic opportunity to the pro displays industry as a whole I think there has been a bit of maybe industry confusion around the purpose and the intended use case for e-paper and I think the point that really needs clarifying is that e-paper is not here to replace lcd I think in many ways it's there to complement LCD.

Yes, it’s there to replace print. 

Morris Garrard: It's there to replace print, exactly, and one of the key conversations around that exact point is, would using the 16:9 aspect ratio be the most appropriate? Obviously, for signage customers that are used to digital signage, then yes, but for those end users that are replacing print signage would actually like the A Series, for example, be a more appropriate sizing range to use.

I think that this market segment is still figuring some of those things out. But yeah, definitely a lot more, A lot more on on show at ISE this year, which was fantastic to see, and even new brands as well, not only kind of new models from those brands that were already active in the space. As I say, it's the early adopter phase at the moment, but I think certainly a lot of industry potential. 

It was interesting, though, because, with all the buzz around it, I don't know that many people because they don't have a reason to be paying that close attention to it. They don't understand that all of these color e-paper displays are coming from one manufacturer, and whether it's Samsung Sharp or Agile Display Solutions, they're remarketing and tweaking E Ink's product. Is there any other manufacturer out there that you've run into that's actually coming up with something that is also color e-paper?

I'm aware of some ESL manufacturers who are not using E Ink, but that's monochrome stuff. 

Morris Garrard: Yeah, I would say really the pioneer is obviously E Ink. I have seen some Chinese facsimiles, but I would say, generally, the major brands that we work with are working with E INk. 

Tearing through stuff here out of necessity, but I wanted to ask about projection. 

Morris Garrard: With projection, I think, there is a tendency within the industry to focus on all of the innovation that's happening in LED especially, and thinking that projection is going away silently, but we're still expecting the projection is going to be a very robust component of market value by the end of the decade. We're still looking at a multi-billion-dollar industry by 2029 or 2030. 

I would say the conversation within projection has shifted; it's a very mature product segment, of course. We're not really seeing the kind of product revolutions anymore in terms of feature sets or whatnot, the conversation has now shifted more towards the applications for projection. So where can projection be used where other display technologies may not be appropriate? One of the key applications, of course, that's grabbing a lot of headlines is projection mapping, for example, being able to scale an image at a massive scale onto things like historic buildings, for example. You're not going to be doing that with led in, historic cities in Europe, for example, it's just not going to happen. But finding other applications as well, for projection where the other technologies just wouldn't be able to be deployed basically. 

When I go to a giant show, like an ISE, I will run into folks like you two and lots of other industry people who've been around for a long time, and we'll always have the conversation of: so,  what did you see that? I need to go see that as well, and I have my own thoughts around that, but I'm curious if there are technologies or particular manufacturers who you came across and thought, “Oh, that's interesting”.

Ted Romanowitz: I'll jump in and say, both the chips on board, the wall at Samsung and the LG magnet at their booth looked fantastic, and then you saw chip on glass actually demonstrated in a large format, 136 inch at LG, as a kind of a TV kind of format. Samsung had the transparent micro LED, which I think shows they're starting to evolve their thinking. It's such a cool technology, but I think everyone's struggling with what the killer application for transparent micro LED is just because companies have been struggling with the idea of a transparent OLED. Where does it really fit in? Those are some of the killer things that I saw. 

The waterfall at Lang booth. I thought it was incredibly cool, as was the kinetic LED display facing the LG booth. Not practical, but it's cool. 

Yeah, and that one, I was impressed by a lot more than previous kinetic LED walls that I've seen because this was more like a game show spinning tile thing where you didn't have all this, very tight synchronizing of modules to make it look good, and I saw another kinetic LED wall I was talking to an old industry friend who said, yeah, this thing's cool, but it's breaking down every half an hour because his stand was right next to it. So it's handled with care. 

Ted Romanowitz: Yeah, I thought the other cool part of that kinetic display at LG was the fact that they drew in a social media aspect where you could, upload your picture and they do a little AI magic and all of a sudden you can see Dave Haynes right up there in the middle of the LG kinetic wall.

Yes, you could, but I tried that, and it turned me into a guy going through a gender transition, which I'm not quite sure how that happened. 

Ted Romanowitz: We love everybody. So that's good. We love you for just who you are, Dave. That's all I'm gonna say about that.

It's a side of me I hadn't thought about, but some people said you look good like that. I don't know. Okay, sorry, but it ain't happening. 

Moz, how about you? 

Morris Garrard: Yeah, we've already touched on it. Compared with the conversations I was having around e-paper at the end of last year, I was amazed to see larger than 32-inch form factors, let alone 75 inches. I think it was at the Dynascan booth. I was just impressed purely with the progress that technology is making in such a short space of time. So yeah, that, for me, was the takeaway. 

All right. This has been great. We could have easily spoken for three hours, but we had limited time somehow or other. I appreciate you guys jumping on the phone with me. 

Ted Romanowitz: Thanks so much. It's a pleasure, and we're headed over to Taiwan and Korea, so maybe we can talk again and give you some feedback on what we saw at Touch Taiwan with some of the big OEMs and ODMs in Asia. 

You gonna have some Soju?

Ted Romanowitz: I will definitely have that. 

Alright, thanks, guys. 

Morris Garrard: Thanks so much, Dave.